The Groundhog and Interest Rates
Tim McLaughlin
For those of you that don’t know the world famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil is a resident of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. On February 2, (Groundhog Day) of each year, the town of Punxsutawney celebrates the beloved groundhog with a festive atmosphere of music and food. During the ceremony, which begins well before the winter sunrise, Phil emerges from his temporary home on Gobbler’s Knob, located in a rural area about 2 miles east of town. According to the tradition, if Phil sees his shadow and returns to his hole, the United States will have six more weeks of winter. If Phil does not see his shadow, spring will arrive early. The date of Phil’s prognostication is aptly known as Groundhog Day throughout the US.
Last Tuesday morning, after Phil ran out, and then immediately back into his temporary home, Phil proclaimed (actually, Phil’s handler proclaimed), “If you want to know next, you must read my text. As the sky shines bright above me, my shadow I see beside me. So six more weeks of winter it will be.”
Since 1887, Phil (who is now rumored to be over 120 years old) and the good people of Punxsutawney have been faithfully rising well before dawn each February 2nd to determine the winter outcome for the country. However, of these 114 predictions on record over the years, Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy has been called into question on many occasions. According to the StormFax Weather Almanac and records kept since 1887, Phil’s predictions have been correct just 39% of the time, a percentage lower than if one were to flip a coin to predict the outcome.
What does that have to do with interest rates? I think the most obvious takeaway here is that I/we/the market is always being asked “what will interest rates do next”? While there is a lot of valuable data at our disposal to help us analyze and make a prediction, the reality is no one really knows for sure. Granted, our success rate is probably a tad better than Phil’s, but no one can guarantee with absolute certainty where/what rates will do next.
However, this we can guarantee: rates are still at/near historical lows with high 4% - low 5% handles. And with rates that low, why ponder what rates will do next…capitalize now. Your Weichert Financial Gold Services Manager and Weichert Realtor can help you take advantage today. And there is no need to wait for the spring market. Given Phil’s charming (but alarmingly inaccurate) predictions, looks like spring is coming early this year (sans the pending blizzard this weekend), assuming his inaccuracy rating stays intact.
The Week Ahead -> The “Keys”
- Light week in terms of economic data releases
|
Date
|
Economic Release |
Prediction |
Last |
| 2/9 |
Small Business Optimism |
- |
88.0 |
| 2/9 |
Wholesale Inventories |
0.5% |
1.5% |
| 2/9 |
IBD/Tipp Eco Optimism |
- |
48.8 |
| 2/9 |
ABC Consumer Confidence |
- |
-49 |
| 2/10 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
- |
21.0% |
| 2/10 |
BB Global Confidence |
- |
- |
| 2/10 |
Trade Balance |
-$35.5B |
-$36.4B |
| 2/10 |
Monthly Budget Statement |
-$70.0B |
-$91.9B |
| 2/11 |
Advance Retail Sales |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
| 2/11 |
less Autos |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
| 2/11 |
less Autos and Gas |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
| 2/11 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
456K |
480K |
| 2/11 |
Continuing Claims |
- |
4602K |
| 2/11 |
Business Inventories |
0.4% |
0.4% |
| 2/12 |
U of Michigan Confidence |
74.8 |
74.4 |
Secondary Marketing Takeaways: Volatile morning with a mixed array of employment data. Nonfarm payroll did not go positive this month as most economists had hoped (down 20K vs. projected up 15K). December’s number was revised downward an additional 65K (85K to 150K), with Oct and Nov having significant downward revisions as well. However, the headline unemployment rate fell to 9.7% from 10.0%, which is perplexing to many. On one hand you still have negative job creation, and increasing weekly initial jobless claims. On the other hand the unemployment rate dropped 0.3%. Could there be a deeper disconnect in the number? Or could more and more people be running out of unemployment benefits, and be artificially excluded from the headline number. Regardless of the root cause, both fixed income and equity sectors are choppy and erratic on the news, flowing back and forth within defined trading ranges, until some sense and ordinance can be made from the data.
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